Antimony, a minor metal with historical uses in medicine and cosmetics, is now primarily used as a flame retardant. However, its importance is growing in military applications and solar cell production. China, the largest producer of antimony, plans to limit its exports starting September 15, 2024. This is significant because China accounts for 48% of global mine production and is the leading producer of processed antimony, such as antimony trioxide (ATO), used in both flame retardants and solar glass. With declining production in China and increasing global demand, the price of antimony has reached record highs and is expected to rise further.
The U.S. company Perpetua Resources is developing a major antimony and gold project in Idaho, which is crucial for U.S. national defense and could meet a significant portion of the country’s antimony needs. Supported by the Pentagon and U.S. Export-Import Bank, this project is vital as it would provide the U.S. with its only domestically mined source of antimony, reducing reliance on China.
Rising Demand for Antimony in Flame Retardants and Beyond
The largest application for antimony today is in flame retardants, which accounted for nearly half of global usage in 2023. As industries increasingly prioritize safety, the demand for flame-retardant materials has grown, positioning antimony as a vital component in these products. However, the metal’s importance is expanding beyond this traditional use, with two fast-growing applications gaining prominence.
Antimony in Military Equipment
The first of these emerging uses is in military equipment, where antimony is crucial for various advanced technologies. It is used in the production of infrared missiles, nuclear weapons, and night vision goggles, contributing to the effectiveness and durability of these critical tools. Additionally, antimony serves as a hardening agent for bullets and tanks, enhancing the performance and longevity of military hardware.
Antimony in Photovoltaic Glass
The second rapidly growing application for antimony is in photovoltaic glass, where it is used to improve the performance of solar cells. As the world shifts towards renewable energy sources, the demand for more efficient solar technologies is driving the need for materials like antimony. Experts predict that in the coming years, the use of antimony in solar technology could surpass its application in flame retardants, further solidifying its importance in the global market.
China’s Dominance and Export Restrictions on Antimony
China plays a pivotal role in the global antimony market, being the world’s largest producer of the metal. In 2023, China accounted for 48% of global mine production, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Additionally, China is the leading producer of processed antimony, including antimony trioxide (ATO), which is widely used in both flame retardants and solar glass.
However, China’s grip on the antimony market is tightening as the country prepares to impose restrictions on its exports. Starting September 15, 2024, China will limit the export of antimony, a move that could have significant repercussions for global supply chains. This decision comes at a time when China is increasingly consuming its antimony production domestically, particularly for the rapidly growing solar cell industry.
Decline in Chinese Antimony Production
The impact of China’s export restrictions is further compounded by the country’s declining antimony ore production. In 2023, China produced only 40,000 tons of antimony ore, a significant drop from the 61,000 tons produced in 2020. This decline is attributed to falling ore grades and stricter environmental regulations. Notably, China’s production in 2023 was nearly 80% less than its peak in 2008, highlighting the challenges facing the industry.
Global Implications of China’s Export Limits
The implications of China’s export restrictions are profound. As the largest producer and exporter of antimony, China’s decision to limit exports is expected to exacerbate the already tight supply in the global market. In the first half of 2024 alone, China’s exports of unwrought antimony, including ingots, fell by 45% year-on-year, reaching just 1,694 metric tons. This sharp decline in exports is likely to lead to further shortages and price increases in the global market.
Soaring Antimony Prices and Market Deficit
Even before China’s announcement of export restrictions, the price of antimony was trading at record highs, exceeding $22,000 per metric ton. The metal’s price had doubled since the beginning of 2024 due to a global deficit. The situation is expected to worsen as China’s export restrictions take effect, potentially driving prices even higher.
Industry Projections and Market Reactions
The metals consultancy CRU Group has predicted that antimony prices could rise to $30,000 per metric ton as buyers scramble to secure supplies for future production. This projection, though significant, may still be conservative given the growing deficit in the antimony market. In May 2024, the consultancy Project Blue estimated that the market deficit stood at 10,000 tons, underscoring the challenges ahead for industries reliant on antimony.
- The global antimony market is expected to grow from $2 billion in 2022 to $2.9 billion by 2032, at a compound annual growth rateThe world of finance is replete with complex concepts, but one that stands as a cornerstone for investors seeking to gauge returns is the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Often ... More (CAGR) of 4% from 2022 to 2032.
- Another forecast projects the antimony market size to reach $5.3 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.4% over the forecast period of 2024-2030.
- In terms of volume, the antimony market size is estimated at 96.72 kilotons in 2024 and is expected to reach 104.17 kilotons by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 1.5% during the forecast period (2024-2029).
- One report indicates that the antimony market was valued at US$ 299.28 million in 2023 and is expected to grow by 5.9% from 2024 to 2030, reaching nearly US$ 447.04 million.
While these forecasts provide different growth rates and market sizes, they all indicate positive growth for the antimony market in the coming years. The variations in the projections may be due to different methodologies, time frames, and market segments considered by each research firm. It’s important to note that these forecasts represent overall market growth rather than specific price predictions. However, as demand grows, it’s likely that prices will also increase, though the exact price changes would depend on various factors including supply, demand, and global economic conditions.
The Long Road to New Supplies
The global production of antimony has halved since 2019, and the scarcity of new supplies is a major concern. With prices having quintupled over the past five years, industries are facing an urgent need to find alternative sources or technologies that can mitigate the impact of rising costs and supply constraints.
Perpetua Resources: A Domestic Solution to Antimony Shortages
In response to the growing strategic importance of antimony, Perpetua Resources is developing a U.S.-based antimony and gold project with support from the Pentagon and the U.S. Export-Import Bank. The company’s Stibnite Gold Project, located in Idaho, represents one of the largest economic reserves of antimony outside of China’s control.
Government Support and Strategic Importance
The U.S. government’s commitment to securing a domestic source of antimony is evident in the nearly $60 million allocated by the Defense Department to support the mine’s permitting process. This funding, along with a potential $1.8 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank, underscores the strategic importance of the Stibnite Gold Project to national defense and economic security.
Production Timeline and Future Prospects
The Stibnite Gold Project, situated in the abandoned Stibnite Mining District, is expected to satisfy approximately 35% of U.S. antimony demand during its first six years of production. In addition to antimony, the project is projected to yield between 4 and 5 million ounces of gold, making it the fourth-largest U.S. gold operation by grade.
Initially, Perpetua Resources had planned to commence production by 2028, contingent upon obtaining the necessary permits by the end of 2024. However, in light of China’s recent actions, the company is exploring ways to accelerate antimony production, recognizing the urgent need to reduce reliance on foreign sources.
Insights
- Antimony’s strategic importance is growing due to its use in military and solar technologies.
- China’s export restrictions are likely to exacerbate the global antimony supply deficit.
- The U.S. is taking significant steps to secure a domestic supply of antimony through the Stibnite Gold Project.
The Essence (80/20)The Origins and Evolution of the 80/20 Principle The Discovery by Vilfredo Pareto In 1897, Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto uncovered a striking pattern in his study of wealth and... More
Antimony is becoming increasingly crucial in military and renewable energy sectors. China’s dominance in antimony production and its new export restrictions are causing global supply concerns and soaring prices. The U.S. is actively working to reduce its reliance on Chinese antimony through domestic projects like Perpetua Resources’ Stibnite Gold Project, which could meet a substantial portion of national demand.
The Guerilla Stock Trading Action Plan
- Monitor developments in China’s antimony export policies and global market reactions.
- Invest in or support projects that aim to develop domestic sources of critical minerals like antimony.
- Assess the impact of rising antimony prices on industries reliant on this metal, particularly in defense and renewable energy sectors.
Blind Spots with Remedies
Environmental Impact and Delays in Domestic Production
- Blind Spot: The environmental challenges and prolonged permitting processes in the U.S. might delay the Stibnite Gold Project, risking dependence on foreign antimony supplies.
- Remedy: Streamline permitting processes by balancing environmental concerns with national security needs. Implement clear timelines and regulatory guidance to expedite critical mineral projects.
Over-reliance on a Single Source for Antimony
- Blind Spot: The U.S. might still be too dependent on Perpetua Resources as its sole domestic supplier, which could be risky if the project faces setbacks.
- Remedy: Diversify supply sources by encouraging exploration and development of other antimony deposits in the U.S. and allied countries, reducing dependency on a single project.
Potential Price Volatility Impact on Industries
- Blind Spot: Industries relying on antimony may face significant disruptions due to price volatility, potentially leading to higher costs or supply shortages.
- Remedy: Develop strategic reserves of antimony and incentivize research into alternative materials or technologies that reduce reliance on antimony.
Geopolitical Risks of Relying on Chinese Antimony
- Blind Spot: The geopolitical tensions with China could lead to further restrictions or supply shocks, making current reliance on Chinese antimony a significant vulnerability.
- Remedy: Strengthen international partnerships with other antimony-producing countries, and increase domestic recycling initiatives to recover antimony from secondary sources like batteries.
PPTA Technical Analysis (daily)
This daily chart of Perpetua Resources Corp (PPTA) shows a recent upward trend, with the price climbing from around $5.20 in mid-July to a high of $9.33 in mid-August. However, the stock has pulled back slightly, currently trading around $8.64.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Key support levels can be identified at $8.35 (23.6% Fibonacci retracementFibonacci retracement is a fundamental tool in the arsenal of technical analysts and traders. Rooted in the mathematical principles of the Fibonacci sequence, this technique is wid... More), $7.75 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), and $7.20 (50-day moving average). The strongest support is around $6.62 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and $4.85 (200-day moving average). Resistance is at the recent high of $9.33 and possibly around $10 if the stock continues upward.
Indicators Analysis:
- Relative Strength IndexIn the world of technical analysis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands as a cornerstone tool for traders seeking insights into market momentum. Developed by J. Welles Wilder ... More (RSI): The RSI is at 69.69, close to the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting the stock might be overbought and due for a potential pullback or consolidation.
- On Balance VolumeThe On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) is a technical analysis tool used to measure the flow of money into and out of a security over a specified period of time. It is a cumulative ... More (OBV): The OBV shows a steady increase, indicating accumulation and strong buying interest supporting the recent price rally.
- Stochastic RSIIn the realm of technical analysis, the Stochastic RSI (StochRSI) emerges as a powerful tool for traders seeking to navigate market dynamics with precision. Developed by Tushar S. ... More: The Stochastic RSI is at 0.799, indicating it’s in the upper region but not yet in overbought territory. This suggests a potential continuation of the current trend, but with caution.
- Chaikin OscillatorNamed after its creator Marc Chaikin, the Chaikin Oscillator stands as a formidable tool in the arsenal of technical analysts. This oscillator is designed to measure the accumulati... More: The Chaikin Oscillator shows a sharp increase, reflecting strong buying pressure. This supports the upward momentum.
- MACDThe MACD indicator is essentially a momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two different moving averages of price. The MACD is the difference between the 12-period ... More: The MACD is positive, with the MACD line above the signal line, and the histogram is green, indicating bullish momentum, though the lines are relatively close, which could signal waning momentum.
Future Trends:
The chart indicates the stock is currently in a bullish trend, but with some caution signs due to the proximity of the RSI to overbought levels and the recent pullback from its high. If the stock holds above the $8.35 support level, it could attempt to retest and break the $9.33 resistance. However, a drop below $7.75 might suggest a deeper retracement toward the $6.62 level, which would be a critical support area to watch. The overall trend remains bullish, but the potential for a short-term correction exists.
PPTA Technical Analysis (weekly)
This weekly chart of Perpetua Resources Corp (PPTA) shows a significant upward trend over the past few months, with the price increasing from a low of $5.02 to a recent high of $9.33. The stock is currently trading at $8.64, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Key support levels are at $8.31 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), $7.62 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), $6.67 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), and $5.70 (40-week exponential moving average). Resistance is at $9.33 (the recent high) and the psychological level of $10.00 if the stock continues its upward trajectory.
Time-Frame Signals:
1-Year Time Frame: The stock is in a strong uptrend, with potential to test the $9.33 resistance and possibly break above it. If the price maintains above the $8.31 support, the bullish momentum is likely to continue.
2-Year Time Frame: The upward trend is reinforced by the stock’s movement above key support levels and the significant increase in volume. If the trend continues, the stock could see higher highs, particularly if it breaks above the $10.00 level.
3-Year Time Frame: The long-term trend is turning bullish after a period of consolidation. If the stock maintains its position above the moving averages and Fibonacci levels, it could experience significant growth. However, a break below the $6.67 support level could signal a reversal or deeper retracement.
Future Trends:
The chart indicates a bullish outlook for Perpetua Resources Corp in the weekly time frame. The increasing volume and positive momentum suggest the potential for further gains. However, caution is warranted if the stock fails to hold above the $8.31 support, as this could lead to a deeper correction.
Past performance is not an indication of future results, and this article should not be considered as investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 🧡
Looking Ahead
As global demand for antimony continues to rise, driven by its applications in military equipment, solar technology, and flame retardants, the metal’s strategic importance is becoming increasingly clear. China’s dominance in the market and its recent export restrictions have amplified concerns about supply shortages and rising prices.
In this context, initiatives like Perpetua Resources’ Stibnite Gold Project are critical to ensuring a stable and secure supply of antimony for the United States. As the world navigates these challenges, the role of antimony in both economic and national security will only grow, making it a metal of paramount importance in the years to come.
FAQ – Perpetua Resources Antimony and Gold Project
1. What is Perpetua Resources, and what project are they developing?
Perpetua Resources is a U.S. company developing a major antimony and gold project in Idaho, crucial for U.S. national defense and meeting a significant portion of the country’s antimony needs.
2. Why is the Perpetua Resources project important for the U.S.?
The project is important because it would provide the U.S. with its only domestically mined source of antimony, reducing reliance on China.
3. What support has the Perpetua Resources project received from the U.S. government?
The project has received support from the Pentagon and the U.S. Export-Import Bank, including a potential loan of up to $1.8 billion and nearly $60 million from the Defense Department for the mine’s permitting process.
4. What is antimony, and what are its main uses?
Antimony is a shiny gray minor metal known for its use in flame retardants, military equipment, photovoltaic glass for solar cells, and as a hardening agent in bullets and tanks.
5. How is antimony typically sourced?
Antimony is most commonly mined from an ore called stibnite, which contains antimony and sulfur. It can also be a byproduct of gold mining or recovered from recycling lead-acid batteries.
6. Why is China’s limitation on antimony exports significant?
China is the world’s largest producer of antimony, and their export limitations could exacerbate the global deficit, driving up prices and impacting industries reliant on antimony.
7. What is the current state of antimony production in China?
China’s antimony ore production has declined from 61,000 tons in 2020 to 40,000 tons in 2023 due to falling ore grades and stricter environmental requirements.
8. How have antimony prices changed recently?
Antimony prices have surged to record highs, trading above $22,000 per metric ton, and are expected to rise further due to China’s export restrictions and a global supply deficit.
9. What is the expected impact of China’s export restrictions on the antimony market?
China’s export restrictions could widen the deficit in the antimony market, potentially pushing prices up to $30,000 per metric ton as buyers stockpile material for future production.
10. How much antimony does the U.S. currently use annually?
The U.S. uses approximately 56.7 million pounds of antimony each year, much of which is imported from China.
11. What are the projected outputs of the Perpetua Resources Stibnite Gold Project?
The Stibnite Gold Project is expected to produce about 115 million pounds of antimony and between 4 to 5 million ounces of gold, making it one of the largest gold operations in the U.S. by grade.
12. How much of U.S. antimony demand could the Stibnite Gold Project satisfy?
The Stibnite Gold Project could satisfy about 35% of U.S. antimony demand in the first six years of production.
13. What environmental considerations are involved in the Stibnite Gold Project?
Perpetua Resources is committed to rehabilitating the site, including significant environmental restoration efforts, at a cost of about one billion dollars.
14. When is production expected to begin at the Stibnite Gold Project?
Perpetua Resources initially planned to begin production by 2028, pending final permits. However, due to recent developments in China, the company is exploring ways to accelerate antimony production.
15. What is the significance of the Stibnite Mining District for the U.S. antimony supply?
The Stibnite Mining District, where the Stibnite Gold Project is located, holds one of the largest economic reserves of antimony not controlled by China, making it crucial for U.S. national security and supply chain independence.
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